April 22, 2011

From the New Jersey Jewish News: Worth a Read and a Smile

Each week NJJN's Editor-in-Chief Andrew Silow-Carroll makes me thing through his insightful articles. This week he made me smile. 


This piece was originally published in the NJJN and can be found here on the NJJN Web site. 

Ask an angry rabbi

Andrew Silow-Carroll
For about 10 minutes in my 20s, I had thoughts of becoming a rabbi. I like to speak in front of an audience, I like to learn Torah, and I’d like a reserved parking space. But at some point I realized that while I may be good at sermonizing, there were other aspects of the rabbi’s job I might not be good at — like, for example, all of them. Visiting the sick? My bedside manner is atrocious. Relating to young people? I am as uncomfortable around teenagers today as I was as a teenager. Inspiring people spiritually? The closest I ever came was when my mother would look at the mess in my bedroom and yell, “Oh God!”
To give you the idea of the gift I gave to the world by not becoming a rabbi, here’s a taste of the kind of advice I’d offer the faithful:
Dear Rabbi: As an Ashkenazi Jew, I was raised with the rule that, unlike Sephardi Jews, we couldn’t eat kitniyot on Passover — no beans, rice, peas, lentils, or corn. I understand that the Conservative movement is more lenient in allowing exceptions for Ashkenazim. So can I go ahead and eat kitniyot?
Answer: Passover is, what, eight days? You can’t do without rice or lentils for eight days? How often do you eat lentils in a normal week? Yes, there are a lot of “do nots” during Passover, but take away the bread, flour, and beer and you still have more choices than about half the people on the planet do on a daily basis. Suck it up.
Dear Rabbi: We have a new cantor, and he has begun to introduce new tunes for familiar prayers like “Adon Olam” and “Lecha Dodi.” To me, synagogue is all about tradition, and I am uncomfortable with the innovations. Should I raise this with the board?
Answer: Do you know what bothers me more than new tunes? The sound of whining. Unless your cantor is a fan of Arnold Schoenberg, I am willing to bet the new tunes are not only a nice change of pace but are relatively easy to learn. Remember the old rule: Do something three times and it’s a tradition. If I can get used to a new Windows program every two years, you can handle a fresh “Ein Keloheinu.”
Dear Rabbi: I saw the new Broadway musical The Book of Mormon and I don’t understand how people can believe in a religion that seems so obviously implausible. I used to wonder the same thing about my Catholic friends, who believe that Jesus is the son of God. Are people generally unintelligent, or just gullible?
Answer: This he asks a rabbi. Listen, friend, religions by their nature are mysterious and address human needs that can’t be met through rational discourse. You’ve heard of the Burning Bush? Bilaam’s talking donkey? That’s our book, and trust me, I wouldn’t want a fact-checker at The New Yorker to take a whack at it. The point is, all religions are weird, in the Oxford English Dictionary sense: “mysterious or unearthly…unaccountably or uncomfortably strange.” That’s their power.
See what I mean? I’ll stick to newspapers. But I would like that parking space.
Andrew Silow-Carroll is Editor-in-Chief of the New Jersey Jewish News. Between columns you can read his writing at the JustASC blog.

April 7, 2011

From NJJN: Reform rabbis: Leader an ‘inspired’ choice



by Johanna Ginsberg
NJJN Staff Writer
March 30, 2011

Local Reform rabbis are hailing the nomination of Rabbi Richard Jacobs as fifth president of the Union for Reform Judaism as an “inspired” choice.

They are lauding his innovative work in synagogue life, his commitment to social justice, and his charisma.

Jacobs, who will succeed the retiring Rabbi Eric Yoffie of Westfield, is the senior congregational rabbi at the Westchester Reform Temple in Scarsdale, NY. In announcing the recommendation of the 55-year-old Jacobs, the 900-synagogue URJ said he stood ready to make more Reform synagogues “vibrant and inclusive.”

“The congregational world is changing, and having someone who has been part of it will help in the decisions and support the URJ will provide,” said Rabbi Mark Kaiserman of Temple Emanu-El of West Essex in Livingston.

“Rick is forward-thinking, innovative, charismatic, and the ‘real deal,’” said Rabbi Daniel Cohen of Temple Sharey Tefilo-Israel in South Orange.

Cohen called Jacobs’ pulpit experience “one of the most significant things about the choice.”

"To have someone take over the leadership of our movement who knows the challenges of, achievements by, and importance of synagogue life intimately can only serve all our congregations well," he said.

Cohen also called the choice a savvy one, since Jacobs was involved in the Rabbinic Vision Initiative, a group of leaders from large synagogue voicing concern over the challenges facing the movement.

Rabbi Matthew Gewirtz of Congregation B’nai Jeshurun in Short Hills, who first met Jacobs more than a decade ago, called him an “outstanding” choice.

They met when Gewirtz was a student at Hebrew Union College and Jacobs came to serve as scholar-in-residence.

“I was immediately taken with his ability to connect with students one on one,” said Gewirtz. “He has a generous manner, and when he gave a sermon, I was moved by his extraordinary ability to communicate — his mere presence was as important as what he’d say.”

Jacobs, said Gewirtz, “knows how to make each person feel he is talking to them. He can say something of depth and reach the depth of each person.”

More recently, Gewirtz spent time with Jacobs after accepting his current position at B’nai Jeshurun in 2006, in part to learn how to carve his own leadership niche at an already successful and thriving congregation. Jacobs himself succeeded the prominent Rabbi Jack Stern at Westchester Reform Temple.

“He knew how to honor his predecessors and chart his own course and really move the congregation forward to where Reform Judaism was heading,” said Gewirtz. “His congregation has become a model of what a suburban Reform congregation could be.”

Beyond the walls
Cohen is looking to Jacobs to offer a "big tent" that will accommodate Reform Jews of all stripes but will also focus on education.

“Having grown up in a Reform Judaism that was rooted in the concept of ‘informed choice,’ I hope we can speak more loudly than ever about educating ourselves as Jews and then respecting the wide range of choices Reform Jews make with regard to their personal and familial observance,” he said.

Rabbi David Levy of Temple Shalom in Succasunna, who doesn’t know Jacobs personally, focused on his track record, especially as a director of Synagogue 2000 and Synagogue 3000, a think-tank that focuses on revitalizing synagogues.

“I love that he was involved with Synagogue 2000 and Synagogue 3000 because that whole movement of synagogue transformation has brought new energy to synagogue life,” said Levy.

Gewirtz said he expects Jacobs to reach outside the synagogues.

“Jacobs has made it clear that whole segments of our community are not affiliated, not because they are not Jewishly engaged, but because they have not found a way to connect to a Jewish institution,” said Gewirtz. “He’s out there beyond congregational walls connecting to people in their 20s and 30s and empty-nesters.”

Jacobs is also known for his interest in social action, helping in places like Darfur and Haiti, serving on the board of the American Jewish World Service, and “greening” his synagogue.

“I love that he has deep roots in social justice. Social justice brought me to the rabbinate and to Temple Shalom,” said Levy.

Rabbis are also looking for his creative thinking to ground the movement.

“Rabbi Jacobs is particularly skilled at thinking outside the box, and this is something we very much need today,” said Rabbi Steven Kushner of Temple Ner Tamid in Bloomfield. “We need new ways to conceptualize the synagogue, new ways to think about what it means to be an authentic Jew, and especially how we understand Jewish responsibility to both the Jewish and the world communities.”

Jacobs has also spoken out in support of the Islamic center near Ground Zero in Manhattan, is chair of the pluralism grants committee of the New Israel Fund, and a member of the rabbinic cabinet of J Street, the “pro-Israel, pro-peace” lobby.

Conservative critics, including the Zionist Organization of America and Commentary magazine, have criticized his involvement in NIF and J Street; the ZOA issued a release saying it is concerned “at the prospect of the Reform movement becoming a captive of the beliefs and actions of both organizations.”

Rabbi Laurence Groffman of Temple Sholom of West Essex in Cedar Grove brushed aside such criticism.

“The question is, What role does the URJ president’s personal views play in his presidency? While his own views on issues are obviously an important factor, the president does not and cannot unilaterally impose his views on the entire movement,” said Groffman. “Sure, he can set a tone and a direction, but what we need is a vibrant dialogue within the movement that takes into account all views on the political spectrum, and I imagine Rabbi Jacobs will value the various perspectives held by people in Reform Judaism.”

Cohen said, “I do not, however, believe that Rabbi Jacobs sitting on the rabbinic board of J Street will make J Street the de facto American group supporting Israel any more than my participation in AIPAC's Policy Conference in May makes it the defacto organization of my temple.”

Kaiserman added: “I have little concern about Rabbi Jacobs’ politics or positions. The next leader of the Reform movement has to be bold, creative, and vibrant. His or her organizational links are again not the values that matter. It is his character.”

The URJ board of trustees will vote on Jacobs’ nomination at its June 2011 meeting.

[An earlier version of this article inadvertently omitted comments by Rabbi Daniel Cohen of Temple Sharey Tefilo-Israel in South Orange. This version has been updated to include his comments.]

April 6, 2011

TSTI Teens in Action: Molly Greenstone

We have amazing teens here at TSTI and here is yet one more example. Today's (April 6, 2011) Star Ledger has a story about Livingston teen Sydney Becker, her battle with cancer and the amazing fundraiser conceived and organized by TSTI teen Molly Greenstone and her friend Casey Baer. As the article notes:

Casey Baer and Molly Greenstone, two of Sydney’s 7th-grade friends from Heritage Middle School, also brainstormed a fundraiser to benefit Make Some Noise, a pediatric cancer research foundation. On Sunday, more than 1,000 people turned out for an event called Strike Out Pediatric Cancer, which raised about $30,000 for cancer research, said Mitch Katz, a family friend and one of the event’s organizers.
We could not be more proud of Molly, her friends and all the people who joined with her for this great purpose.

Here is the full piece...

Community rallies around 12-year-old Livingston girl with rare bone cancer
Published: Wednesday, April 06, 2011, 8:00 AM



LIVINGSTON — Sydney Becker’s favorite color is pink — a neon, bubblegum-colored hue that pops. It’s the color of the wig she started wearing when her hair fell out from chemotherapy, and it’s also the color of the matching Converse sneakers she wears pretty much everywhere because her leg brace prevents her from wearing most shoes.
Until a few months ago, Sydney was a average Livingston 12-year-old, going to dance classes, reading the Harry Potter books and watching movies with her friends. Then in October, the softball fanatic hurt her leg sliding into third base during a playoff game for her traveling team.
When her knee still hurt two months later, her parents took her to a specialist. The doctor ordered a routine X-ray and found a tumor on her left tibia, or shin bone.
In January, Sydney was diagnosed with osteosarcoma, a rare form of bone cancer that the American Cancer Society says strikes about 400 U.S. children and adolescents a year and accounts for about 3 percent of childhood cancers. Overall, about 900 cases are diagnosed annually in the nation.
Friends, family and neighbors rallied quickly, cooking meals, providing rides to Sydney’s two siblings and offering moral support, said her father, Jeff Becker. That support was invaluable to Sydney’s stunned family.
"She went from being perfectly fine with no worries to two weeks later, spending every day in the hospital," Becker said.
Casey Baer and Molly Greenstone, two of Sydney’s 7th-grade friends from Heritage Middle School, also brainstormed a fundraiser to benefit Make Some Noise, a pediatric cancer research foundation. On Sunday, more than 1,000 people turned out for an event called Strike Out Pediatric Cancer, which raised about $30,000 for cancer research, said Mitch Katz, a family friend and one of the event’s organizers.
"There has been so much support," Sydney said this week. "It’s sad that it takes something so terrible to make people come together, but I am trying to stay positive."
Sydney said her friends wanted to help her recovery efforts but couldn’t drive carpools or cook dinner. They came up with they idea to do a fundraising run/walk, and that evolved into the softball-themed event to honor Sydney.
Raising the money for Make Some Noise was a no-brainer, Sydney said, because the organization has been so helpful to her in the past few months by putting her in touch with other pediatric cancer patients.
"Talking to other people my age is helpful, and especially people who have been through it," she said. "Adults try to be reassuring, but they don’t know what it’s like, and these kids do because they did the same thing."
Today, Sydney will have surgery at Memorial Sloan Kettering in New York to replace her tumor-infected bone with titanium. That, combined with another five months of chemotherapy, should keep the cancer from coming back, her father said.
Despite her illness, Sydney tries to keep busy. On Monday night she went to a Yankee game and got a special tour of the new stadium, and she is studying for her bat mitzvah next month.
She keeps an online journal chronicling her experiences,  www.caringbridge.org/visit/sydneybecker, and also posts photos. She is particularly proud of the one that portrays her, grinning and bald, with actor Daniel Radcliffe, Harry Potter’s screen persona, whom she met last week after seeing him perform on Broadway in the play "How To Succeed In Business Without Really Trying."
Sydney knows her surgery will keep her off the softball field for a while, but she’s hoping to be back in a few seasons, playing her favorite sport once again.
"I probably will not be running or sliding too much," she said, "but I am going to do the best I can."

March 8, 2011

10 Minutes of Torah- DAVAR ACHER The Key to Jewish Survival Revealed



DAVAR ACHER Davar Acher 
The Key to Jewish Survival Revealed

Rabbi Daniel Cohen


In rabbinical school, Dr. Martin Cohen gave us a difficult, but illuminating, task. Each member of the class picked a biblical holiday and identified each and every reference to it in that sacred text. He then had us turn to the rabbinic tradition and go through the same process. Not surprisingly, in most cases the "biblical version" of a holiday and the "rabbinic version" were vastly different. At times, they seemed to describe two entirely different holidays.

That brings us to this week's portion.

With its detailed description of the various biblical sacrifices, the portion and book of Vayikra often seems unfamiliar, foreign, and at times disturbing. It describes a religious approach that is almost entirely different from what we modern Jews call Judaism.

Many of us grew up believing that Rabbinic Judaism was a direct outgrowth of the religion of the Patriarchs and Matriarchs, but that isn't true. Rabbinic Judaism did not flow from biblical Judaism but was built on top of it.

Consider archeology, and how there are two ways a new city might be built on the same ground. The first is to remodel but keep the same basic structure. The second is to build an entirely new city on top of the first's remains. The new city might be built on the foundation of the previous one, but that might be where their similarities end. Modern Judaism is akin to a new city built atop the old.

What has kept Judaism alive since 70 CE has been our people's commitment, tenacity, and flexibility, their willingness to build something new on top of what had been created; they’ve respected the past but have been willing to cut almost all ties with it as well.

Vayikra introduces an important part of our people's history. There is much to study and learn within this portion and book, but perhaps the greatest lesson it teaches us is not contained within the text itself. It is found in the very fact that the portion seems so ancient and foreign to us.

The key to Jewish survival is revealed through Vayikra, and it is—flexibility—the ability to remember the past and learn from it but to never be fearful of trying something radically new. It’s the need to build on the foundation of what has been but never feel constrained by it because, after all, that's how we got here in the first place.

Rabbi Daniel Cohen serves Temple Sharey Tefilo-Israel in South Orange, New Jersey.

February 25, 2011

The Story is Ancient: the Hagaddah is a Work in Progress

Preview
For the past few years I have used a different Passover Haggadah each time I led the family seder. Of course it is easy to find a new Hagaddah since there are a tremendous number of different versions available from a wide variety of publishers. And each brings its own perspective. For example, there are haggadot that are more gender inclusive, there is a haggadah that is intended for vegetarians (the Hagaddah of the Liberated Lamb), and there is even a haggadah for those who are seeking spiritual enlightenment. Each begins with the traditional biblical text, but then interprets it in its own unique way.
At some point during the meal in past years, my family would begin their “review”of that year’s choice in Haggadah. Now there are two directions this conversation (read “critique session”) would usually go; either along the lines of “I didn’t really like this year’s Haggadah” or more likely something like “I really hated this year’s Haggadah.” “Like” or “love” are not words generally heard when referring to any year’s Haggadah.
Two years ago when we sat down for the meal, my family asked which Haggadah we were going to use. I replied, “We need to go into the den for that.” When we got into the den, the Seder plate (which is part of the ritual) was already there. “Okay so where’s the Haggadah?” someone asked. Without a word I turned on the large flat-panel TV and started the seder.
Yes, that year our Passover Haggadah came in the form of a Keynote presentation that I had put together. It included the prayers for service, along with a series of different images. I had also decided that if I was going to do something as “out there” as this, then I might as well make it fun and truly memorable. With that goal in mind, I included a few videos I had grabbed from YouTube, and I used a lot of family photographs. My golden retriever, Maisy, was still alive at the time, and she made a cameo appearance. I included a series of comments about various family members on certain pages, and of course, I used a few clips from the movie the 10 Commandments. It was silly, it was fun, it kept people engaged, and when I did not use it last year at Passover, my family almost rebelled.
Yes, I finally found a Haggadah they liked.
Safari
This year we will be using yet another new Haggadah, and thanks to Behrman House Publishers it is going to be a collaborative effort with other members of the family. Thanks to a nifty piece of web-based technology, you can now take Behrman House’s Family Haggadah and add your own images and text. The result is a truly personalized Haggadah. Even better, the system allows you to give access to others; you can choose whether to give them Read-Only permission or full editorial rights. I’m making one, and I will give my niece Talia and nephew Joey access so they can work on it with me from their home in the Boston area.
Here’s a quick walk-through of the first steps.
Safari
As the Web site explains, you can add a lot of text and personal pictures and spend a significant amount of time on it … or you can do just a few changes and have the process done in half an hour. You can then order printed copies of your very own, personalized Haggadah.
Adium
There are two versions available: the Standard Version gives you 34 pages with 50 images you can change, and it has 15 text areas that can be personalized. The Premium Version is a dollar more; it adds two more pages and the words and music to one of the best-loved Passover songs.
Safari
The customization starts right off the bat when you give your Haggadah a unique title.
As noted, you can also add people to work on it with you. If you only want to be able to show someone the pages you have personalized, you give them “View Only” access. This is good if, hypothetically speaking, you wanted to make sure your wife Elana is okay with the picture of her that you used in it. You can also give editorial access to others. When you do, they get an email invitation and can get to work right away.
You can also indicate how many books you expect to order.
Safari
The next page shows you the full layout of the Haggadah and the places where you can customize it. “My Text” indicates an opportunity to change or add text, while “My Picture” lets you add, crop and rotate images that are on your computer.
I should note that, as of this post, the system does not render properly if you are using Safari as your browser. However, it works just fine with Chrome.
Google Chrome
To edit a text box, you simply click “My Text”. A window opens that offers a text area as well as the ability to do some minor text formatting.
Google Chrome
To edit an image, you click “My Photo” and then upload a picture from your desktop. Once the image is in the browser you can rotate or crop it. I found the rotation feature a bit cumbersome to use, but it does work. You can also add, change or delete the text below the image.
Google Chrome
So on the first page of the Haggadah, I was able to add an old picture of my niece and nephew at the top and change the title; I added personal text in the lower left corner, and I added a picture of my sister with her family on the lower right. Once I was happy with it, I was ready to either save it and close down, or move to the next page and begin editing.
What is great about the process is that you can always go back and rework a page. Nothing is written in stone until you purchase your haggadahs and check out.
It was quite a bit of fun to get started with creating this year’s haggadah, but I stopped after the first page. Why? Because I want this to be something I do with Joey and Talia. They are away this week, but we can get to work on it upon their return. Fortunately we have time.
Safari
The handy countdown timer on the ‘Build Your Own Haggadah’ homepage tells me that I still have 40 days left to finish and order it. Hmmm, there’s something rather biblical about that number, no?
I can see this being a lot of fun for us, and best of all when Passover arrives we’ll get to use a Haggadah that we all created together. We’ll see how the “Haggadah of the Year Tear Down Session” goes this time around. ;-)

February 15, 2011

Seth Abramson, Mazel tov on Your GRAMMY!

Congrats to TSTI member Seth Abramson, awarded a Grammy on Sunday night for co-producing the best large jazz ensemble album of the year: “Mingus Big Band Live at the Jazz Standard.”

February 2, 2011

Two More Must-Reads on the Uprising in Egypt

There are two op-ed pieces in today's New York Times that are important pieces offering insight and raise no small degree of concern with regard to recent events in Egypt.The first comes from Yossi Klein HaLevi and the second from Thomas Friedman. The first paragraphs along with links to the full pieces can be found below.



Israel, Alone Again?

Jerusalem

ISRAELIS want to rejoice over the outbreak of protests in Egypt’s city squares. They want to believe that this is the Arab world’s 1989 moment. Perhaps, they say, the poisonous reflex of blaming the Jewish state for the Middle East’s ills will be replaced by an honest self-assessment.
But few Israelis really believe in that hopeful outcome. Instead, the grim assumption is that it is just a matter of time before the only real opposition group in Egypt, the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, takes power. Israelis fear that Egypt will go the way of Iran or Turkey, with Islamists gaining control through violence or gradual co-optation.

B.E., Before Egypt. A.E., After Egypt.

RAMALLAH, West Bank



I’m meeting a retired Israeli general at a Tel Aviv hotel. As I take my seat, he begins the conversation with: “Well, everything we thought for the last 30 years is no longer relevant.”
That pretty much sums up the disorienting sense of shock and awe that the popular uprising in Egypt has inflicted on the psyche of Israel’s establishment. The peace treaty with a stable Egypt was the unspoken foundation for every geopolitical and economic policy in Israel for the last 35 years, and now it’s gone. It’s as if Americans suddenly woke up and found both Mexico and Canada plunged into turmoil on the same day.
“Everything that once anchored our world is now unmoored,” remarked Mark Heller, a Tel Aviv University strategist. “And it is happening right at a moment when nuclearization of the region hangs in the air.”
This is a perilous time for Israel, and its anxiety is understandable.

Jonathan Schanzer's Take on the Egyptian Uprising



This past fall one of our guest for a Shabbat Scholar Dinner was Jonathan Schanzer.   Jonathan is a Middle East analyst and vice president of research for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the author of Hamas vs. Fatah: The Struggle for Palestine, the only book on the market that chronicles the Palestinian civil war. His Web site offers some good insight into what takes place in the Middle East and I wanted to share his two most recent posts with all of you. Among the paragraphs of particular note...


Interestingly, the Arab leadership that may be next to go is the Palestinian Authority, led by Mahmoud Abbas in the West Bank. The release by al-Jazeera of documents revealing that the PA was prepared to make certain concessions to Israel have sparked anger across the West Bank as well as the Gaza Strip, where the more radical Hamas holds power. As one Palestinian analyst noted, the streets of the West Bank have been largely quiet, but it may only be a matter of time before Palestinians make known their revulsion at their leadership. In what appears to be a pre-emptive step, the PA announced it will hold local council elections "as soon as possible." The PA has not held elections since 1996, and the move seems inextricably tied to the unrest through the region.



How Far Will Egypt Tumult Spread? 
by Jonathan Schanzer
Politico February 1, 2011




Immediately after the fall of Tunisia's 23-year dictator, Zine al-Abedine Ben Ali, analysts warned of a domino effect across the Arab world. Would-be democrats in other Arab countries reasoned that if a small country like Tunisia could topple its dictator, perhaps the strategy could be replicated in larger Arab states.
In the days following Ben Ali's flight to Saudi Arabia on January 14, several brave souls did the unthinkable and immolated themselves to protest their regimes. Their goal was to set off the same reaction that took place in Tunisia, stemming from the shock and rage surrounding the plight of Mohammed Bouazizi, the rural street peddler who set himself alight after authorities shut down his produce stand -- his only livelihood. Since then, there have been four self-immolations in Algeria, at least nine in Egypt, one in Mauritania, one in Saudi Arabia, and another report of one in Tunisia.
None of these incidents started the chain reaction that took place in Tunisia, but Arab protesters are still trying to replicate the Tunisian model of regime change. Egypt appears closest, with protests against the 30-year rule of Hosni Mubarak now in their eighth straight day. The estimated 300,000 protestors who have flocked to the streets today have made clear that they seek nothing less than an end to the regime. Indeed, Mubarak's announcement that he will not seek reelection in September 2011, coupled with promises of liberalization, may not be enough to placate them.
The media is now awash with reports that Jordan may be next. On Tuesday, after three straight Friday protests, King Abdullah II sacked his entire cabinet. The King is now in dialogue with the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood, operating under the Islamic Action Front, about political and economic reforms. While such measures are long overdue in Jordan, the cabinet shake-up smacks of a last-ditch effort to salvage legitimacy, and follows identical but unsuccessful moves by Mubarak in Egypt and Ben Ali in Tunisia. For now, however, Jordan appears to be stable.
Rumors are now circulating that protests may be on the way in Syria. A "day of rage" is set for Saturday. But it's hard to imagine that the Syrian population will rise up, as the country is an absolute police state. Indeed, one Syrian analyst suggests to me that the calls to protest may simply be a trap set by the regime to identify and root out dissidents.
A more troublesome spot is Yemen, where more than 3,000 protesters came out in the country's south on Monday, demanding a change in leadership. Yemen's president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, has been in power since 1978. At 32 years, his term has outlasted those of both Mubarak (30 years) and Ben Ali (23 years). While protests have gone on for much of the past week, the regime does not appear to be in imminent danger.
Interestingly, the Arab leadership that may be next to go is the Palestinian Authority, led by Mahmoud Abbas in the West Bank. The release by al-Jazeera of documents revealing that the PA was prepared to make certain concessions to Israel have sparked anger across the West Bank as well as the Gaza Strip, where the more radical Hamas holds power. As one Palestinian analyst noted, the streets of the West Bank have been largely quiet, but it may only be a matter of time before Palestinians make known their revulsion at their leadership. In what appears to be a pre-emptive step, the PA announced it will hold local council elections "as soon as possible." The PA has not held elections since 1996, and the move seems inextricably tied to the unrest through the region.
The importance of Egypt, however, cannot be overstated. Cairo is the capital of the Arab world. If Mubarak's regime crumbles, it could lead to contagion, and more chaos to follow.






Mubarak Won't Run Again--What's the Effect?





Hosni Mubarak's announcement sparked immediate outrage from the Egyptian protestors, who have stated repeatedly over the last several days that they seek nothing less than his ouster.
President Obama made the right call in urging Mubarak not to seek reelection, but he may have inadvertently made the situation more dangerous. If Mubarak serves out his term and elections take place in September - seven months from now - it will be almost a surefire recipe for the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood.
The Brotherhood is the only party that has the financing, infrastructure and ability to mobilize. Egypt's other opposition parties are in shambles, having been suffocated by the Mubarak regime for decades. Seven months is not enough time for them to prepare to compete in elections.
But things don't have to go that way. The president can still ask Mubarak to step aside and allow for the creation of a transitional caretaker government, backed by the military, which can maintain order on the streets, create a safe political space, and then guide the nation to democracy. The caretaker government would preside over a period during which the Egyptian people can draft a new constitution - not just amend it, as Mubarak suggested in his speech - and prepare for genuinely fair elections.
The longer this transition period lasts - within reason - the stronger the opposition parties can become. This would mitigate the power of the Muslim Brotherhood and other groups that reject democratic principles, without completely excluding them from the political process.
Former International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohammed El Baradei backs this plan, and so does the constellation of reform factions that tapped him to speak in its name. But ElBaradei himself would not need to lead the cabinet. Newly-installed vice president Omar Suleiman (or another known quantity) could also do so.
But the key to this is the Egyptian military. It has earned the trust of the people. Indeed, it has not fired a shot on the protestors. If it can preside over this process, it can guarantee that the power of the transitional leader is kept in check, so a peaceful democratic process can unfold.
Yes, this plan carries risks. But so does inaction. If Mr. Obama accepts Mubarak's plan and allows elections to take place in September, the Muslim Brotherhood will be poised to fill the vacuum. This could result in two equally miserable scenarios: the rise of a Muslim Brotherhood government, or new strong man tapped by the West to bring it down.